Alfonse and Gaston

With the ruling by the Senate Parliamentarian that having a law means, you know, actually having a law in force, the self-Slaughter Strategy seems dead, further complicating matters for Democrats who are trying to find the procedural loopholes necessary to pass health care.  In effect, the Slaughter Strategy – a frankly bizarre attempt to redefine “passed” – was a way for the House to get the Senate to go first, even though right now, it’s the House’s turn.  The House clearly doesn’t trust that Senate will make changes, especially since, as far as the White House is concerned, it doesn’t really matter.  Remember, the Republicans are the opposition, but the Senate is the enemy.

Now, the House will actually be on the record on substantive, not procedural votes, and it will have to find a way to pass either the Senate bill or something acceptable to the Senate before reconciliation can move forward.

The Democrats will try to paint this as “raising the bar,” but of course, reconciliation simply cannot act on something that isn’t in force.  Voting that something is conditionally in force, never presenting a finished law to the President for his signature, doesn’t actually pass a bill out of Congress, so this ruling should be taken as common sense and perfectly reasonable.  That common sense and reason have departed from the Democratic camp by now should be evident to all.

One thing we should have learned by now is not to declare this thing dead until the new Congress is sworn in next January.  But if the House is resorting to parliamentary contortions like the Slaughter Strategy, it’s clear they don’t think they have the votes at this point.

And the Senate majority leader is “sending a letter to Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in which he dared the GOP to vote against reform,” which reminds me of nothing so much as this:


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Plus ca Change…

From Life magazine, about the WPA pavilion at the 1939 New York World’s Fair:

Last week, as controversy continued to gather over the newly completed WPA building at the World’s Fair, the exhibit seemed destined to become the nation’s No. 1 “boondoggle.”  Designed primarily to acquaint Fair visitors with the scope and efficiency of the WPA, the exhibit has thus far created the opposite impression.  To build it, $250,000 was appropriated.  By the time the Fair opened the pavilion was incomplete and had already cost $544,000 according to its engineers.  Though characterized as a relief project, it was discovered thst on one day only 17.7% of the men engaged in building it were relief workers.

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Amazon Shoots and Misses

As most of Colorado knows, Amazon suspended its affiliate program in Colorado yesterday.  Monday morning, many of us (myself included) awoke to find the following in our inboxes:

Dear Colorado-based Amazon Associate:

We are writing from the Amazon Associates Program to inform you that the Colorado government recently enacted a law to impose sales tax regulations on online retailers. The regulations are burdensome and no other state has similar rules. The new regulations do not require online retailers to collect sales tax. Instead, they are clearly intended to increase the compliance burden to a point where online retailers will be induced to “voluntarily” collect Colorado sales tax — a course we won’t take.

We and many others strongly opposed this legislation, known as HB 10-1193, but it was enacted anyway. Regrettably, as a result of the new law, we have decided to stop advertising through Associates based in Colorado. We plan to continue to sell to Colorado residents, however, and will advertise through other channels, including through Associates based in other states.

There is a right way for Colorado to pursue its revenue goals, but this new law is a wrong way. As we repeatedly communicated to Colorado legislators, including those who sponsored and supported the new law, we are not opposed to collecting sales tax within a constitutionally-permissible system applied even-handedly. The US Supreme Court has defined what would be constitutional, and if Colorado would repeal the current law or follow the constitutional approach to collection, we would welcome the opportunity to reinstate Colorado-based Associates.

You may express your views of Colorado’s new law to members of the General Assembly and to Governor Ritter , who signed the bill.

Your Associates account has been closed as of March 8, 2010, and we will no longer pay advertising fees for customers you refer to Amazon.com after that date. Please be assured that all qualifying advertising fees earned prior to March 8, 2010, will be processed and paid in accordance with our regular payment schedule. Based on your account closure date of March 8, any final payments will be paid by May 31, 2010.

We have enjoyed working with you and other Colorado-based participants in the Amazon Associates Program, and wish you all the best in your future.

Best Regards,

The Amazon Associates Team

The reaction to this has tended to fall along typically uninformed party lines.  The Democrats tend to accuse Amazon of trying to avoid the new Internet Tax.  The Republicans claim that this is just a natural response, pulling out of a suddenly burdensome situation.  In fact, neither is quite right.

The law, HB10-1193, was one of the Dirty Dozen tax increases, an imposition of the state sales tax on a hitherto exempted category.  Internet sales in fact have been taxed, if the seller has a physical presence in the state.  Therefore, if you buy a washing machine from Sears online, since Sears has stores and warehouses in Colorado, you would have paid sales tax on that purchase.  Companies with no physical presence in the state have been exempted from that sales tax here and in most states, because there was essentially no way to enforce the tax.

The Internet Tax supposedly sought to capture an estimated $5 million in revenue that was being missed, on the theory that affiliates based in Colorado provided a physical presence to the company.  In theory, this was revenue that had migrated from taxable in-store sales to non-taxable Internet sales.  However, this was wrong in both theory and practice, and Democrats in the House who voted for it (including HD-6’s current rep Lois Court) were operating under mistaken assumptions.  First, there’s no way of measuring how many sales were made online that otherwise would have been made in stores, and how many were additional sales of items that would not have been available in state, or were from sales that were only available online.  Secondly, good luck getting Amazon to turn over customer records.

Now, when Rep. Court was confronted with the fact that this tax was uncollectable, that companies out of state couldn’t be forced to comply, and that people might well alter their buying habits to avoid the tax, her reply was a consistent, “find me another $5 million.”  In other words, she voted to pretend to raise $5 million and to make the state look foolish in the process.

Clearly, this proposed tax, whose enforcement would have fallen on the affiliates, would have created a huge administrative nightmare for the thousands of small affiliates in the state, many of whom would have folded up.  It was also predictable under those circumstances that companies like Amazon might have folded up and terminated their affiliate contracts.  But a concerted lobbying effort, led by my friends Marc and Claudia Braunstein, who own ShopAtHome.com, a business based entirely on affiliate relationships, and by the PMA, forced the State Senate to amend the tax so that the responsibility for tracking and paying the tax falls on purchasers now, rather than sellers.   In other states, Rhode Island and North Carolina, that change wasn’t made, and Amazon pulled out.  But it was expected that this would save the affiliate relationships here in the state.

So here’s where both sides are wrong, and where it becomes clear that Amazon has made at least a tactical error here.  Their action is clearly not an attempt to evade paying the sales tax.  The administrative burden of that tax falls on buyers, not Amazon, and if Colorado attempts to force a company based in Washington State to disclose the purchases of their Colorado customers, it’s going to find itself needing a supplemental appropriation to the Attorney General’s office.  In fact, the predictable failure to raise revenue, combined with the black hole of legal expenses, might actually allow this change in tax policy to qualify under TABOR.

But precisely because of that, the action makes no sense to the affiliates.  Without warning, thousands of Amazon’s sales partners found their incomes eliminated, despite their efforts. This looks an awful lot like friendly fire.  These are business partners that the company has alienated and insulted.  These are your allies, Amazon.  What, have you been making a detailed study of the Obama Administration’s approach to Britain?

Now maybe Amazon is trying to get their affiliates to put pressure on the state to repeal the damn thing altogether, and Greg Brophy, chief among the Senators Who Get It, is already talking about that.  But maybe Amazon is really ticked off at its affiliates.  After all, they only lobbied to shift the administrative burden, and onto their customers, at that, rather than to stop the tax altogether.  This is, at least, poor customer relations.  It’s also possible that Amazon sees it as cowardly, since the affiliates were counting on Amazon to foot the legal bill to fight this thing.   Never mind that Amazon could have passed some of this cost along to its Colorado affiliates in the form of reduced referral fees.  But regardless of what Amazon thinks it’s trying to accomplish here, it’s awful PR.

In short, both the Republicans and Democrats are wrong.  Doing this doesn’t make it any easier to fight the tax, and as a result, it’s hard to see why it’s a natural outcome of this otherwise horrible idea for a tax.  But in the end, Amazon’s misfire is going to cost it a lot of the goodwill that it brought into this fight.

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Tawfiq Hamid in Colorado

Dr. Tawfiq Hamid, one of the voices in the wilderness seeking to reform Islam from within, is making an extended tour of the Denver/Boulder area.  In addition to the public appearances listed below, he is making a large number of radio appearances, including one this evening on Backbone Radio (audio to be posted later in the week).  If you get a chance, please be sure to hear him speak.

  • Mon, March 1, 7:30 PM, St. John’s Cathedral’s Abrahamic Inititive, The Roots of Jihad: What Americans Need to Understand to Keep America Safe., 1350 Washington St., Denver
  • Tues., March 2, 5:30 pm-7:30 pm, Regis University, 3333 Regis Blvd., Denver 80221
  • Wed., March 3, 11:30am-1:00 pm, Centennial Institute, 8787 W. Alameda Ave., Lakewood 80226. Confronting Radical Islam
  • Thurs., March 4, noon-1:30 pm, Wellshire Presbyterian Church, 2999 S. Colorado Blvd., Denver 80222. Why Terror is Proliferating in the West.
  • Thurs., March 4, 6:00 pm-8:00 pm, CU Boulder Mathematics Bldg., Room 100 (Folsom and Colorado).  -Fri., March 5, 7:00 pm-8:30 pm, University Park Methodist Church, 2180 S. University Bldvd., Denver 80210. Reforming the Muslim Religion.
  • Sat., March 6, 10:00 am-11:30 am, Simchat Torah Beit Midrash, 19697 E. Smoky Hill Rd., Centennial. An Insider’s View of Islamic Violence: The roots of Jihad and Suggested Solutions.
  • Sat., March 6, 12:30 pm-1:30 pm, Book signing at Barnes & Noble, 8555 E. Arapahoe Rd., Greenwood Village 80112.
  • Sun., March 7, 7:00 pm-9:00 pm, Plymouth Congregational Church, 3501 S. Colorado Blvd., Denver 80113. The Mentality of Terror: The How and Why Terror is Proliferating in the West.
  • Mon., March 8, 7:00 pm-9:00 pm, Hebrew Educational Alliance, 3600 S. Ivanhoe St., Denver 80237. Why the World is Losing the War on Terror: An Islamic Liberal’s View.

His tour is being sponsored by Act for America.

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Logomania

So by now, most of you have seen the new logo for the Missile Defense Agency:

Look familiar?

Which got me thinking.

Department of Energy:

State Department:

Department of Transportation:


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Electric Car Network

I wrote about car recharging stations being developed in Israel and being deployed there and in Denmark.  Now, the company, which has secured a $350 million investment led by HSBC, plans to launch a network of charging stations in Israel by next year.  They’ve partnered with a local gas station chain to host the recharging stations, and with Renault to modify their cars to take the electric batteries.  Better Place claims that the batteries have a first-run life of 300-400,000 kilometers (that’s about 180-240,000 miles in real units), and then can be reconditioned to get that amount again on their second run.

New technologies often have the problem of being dependent on parallel developments to work.  In the 1860s and 1870s, railroads weren’t going to build without a population to support; the people couldn’t get there without the railroads, so the government heavily subsidized western track-building.  In this case, it was clear that the recharging stations wouldn’t work without cars to service, and it’s been clear to me for some time that electric cars weren’t going anywhere if they were only good for runs to the supermarket.  Better Place has managed to broker the deals necessary to get the technology moving, and one assumes that Israel’s electrical grid is up to the task.

It’s unclear where the initial R&D funding came from, but the fact is that the market has supported the development of these grids and these cars.  Agassi claims that the cars will be cheaper than the gas equivalents, and cheaper to “refill” per mile than the gas equivalent.  Their range is advertised at 350  miles, which is about what an average tank of gas gets, and about 50 miles farther than my Jeep gets on one tank.  Assuming that the car’s performance is adequate, the market already exists.  It means that I don’t have to believe in anthropogenic global warming or peak oil or anything else to buy one.  I just have to want to save money.

The question for the USA, as always, is where we’re going to get the electricity from.  If individuals want to recharge their batteries, they’ll probably do so overnight, which means baseload capacity that wind and solar can’t provide.  So hopefully, those of us who want to see both nuclear and electric cars can persuade both ends to make it easier for the middle.

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ttp://www.jsharf.com/view/?p=284

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Backbone Radio!

I’ll be on Backbone Radio this evening, with Ross Kaminsky and Matt Dunn.   Listen to 710 KNUS from 5-8 to hear us.

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Refighting the Cold War

The Cold War.  This idea is so old – and yet so new – that I don’t even have a category for it.  I mean, the USSR is so last century.  Really, it embodies pretty much everything that went off the rails from 1914 – 1989.  You want evil, the Soviets have it all.  Genocide.  Secret police.  Armed suppression.  Grey masses wearing grey clothes eating grey mush.

Let’s face it.  We do best when we can make fun of our enemies.  (It’s the main reason that the suppression of the Mohammed cartoons is so dangerous, and the main reason that the academy’s meek acquiescence in the matter is so dreadful.)  But if we find it funny it’s because we were winning, and we didn’t have to live with this crap, and if any Russians find it funny, it’s because they don’t have to live with it any more.

So why do I bring this up?  Because apparently, there are people abroad in the world who are not entirely convinced of this.  I don’t mean Putin, who was apparently plotting to re-create the Czarist Empire from the moment Hungarians started issuing visas and half the Germans under his watchful eye decamped to the West for some refreshingly non-destructive window-shopping.  I don’t mean Inner Party members or even Outer Party members.  I mean Americans, westerners, people who supposedly spent the better part of a century working to eliminate Homo Communismus from the taxonomy of living political beings, who are not entirely convinced that it was a good thing that the GDR went out of business.

I ran into one today.

I won’t recount the conversation at length, since I can’t do it justice, and you’ve heard it all before.  (If you haven’t heard it all before, a major part of your philosophical education has gone missing.  But since you’ve probably been to college, this is extremely unlikely.)  But the arguments are worth hearing on their own.

  • Oh, East Germany wasn’t free?  Well, what do you mean by free?
  • Well, no, nothing in our Bill of Rights would have been respected, but they did have a certain freedom conferred on them by their social services
  • The only reason the system never became self-supporting was because we never invested in it
  • Or because we offered the Marshall Plan with strings attached
  • Germany has re-created an internal police system every bit as invasive as the Stasi
  • 1956 was our fault, because we encouraged the Hungarians

While some may have encouraged the Hungarians, Budapest 1956 was notable for Soviet brutality, not American duplicity.  And, of course, there’s only the West to blame for the GDR’s economic failure, since only a capitalist economy had wealth that could go looking for foreign markets.

Still, to compare East and West from a purely materialistic point of view misses the point.  What good is having free health care if I get carted off to prison for making a joke about Honecker?  There’s no dignity in being a perpetual supplicant to the state for my subsistence.  Of course, even on purely materialistic terms, the East failed its citizens compared to the West.

(Some people will be tempted point to the debate here in the US now as mirroring my argument with this gentleman, but it is worth pointing out that nothing in long-time socialist Western Europe begins to approach the totalitarianism of Stalin and Brezhnev.  So while the philosophical points are similar, and the practical arguments may sound the same, East Berlin 1967 was several orders of magnitude worse than Berlin 2010.  Let’s keep things in perspective.  Helmut Schmidt was no Erich Honnecker.)

In the brilliant film, The Lives of Others, there’s a joke going around East Germany:

Erich Honnecker wakes up, and the sun is just coming up.  He leans out the window and says, “Good Morning, Sun!”  And the sun replies, “Good Morning, Erich.”

At lunchtime, Honnecker leans out the window and says, “Good afternoon, Sun!”  And the Sun replies, “Good afternoon, Chancellor!”

And in the evening, Honnecker, after a hard day at work, goes to the window and says, “Good evening, Sun!”  Silence.  He tries again, “Good evening, Sun!”  Nothing.  “What is that matter, Sun, why don’t you reply?”

And the sun says, “Screw you, I’m in the West now!”

I have to admit, I was flabbergasted to be revisiting conversations I had had innumerable times in the 80s.  To come across someone who still, after all this time, felt that East Germans were better off under the Communists than they are now.  Because surely the East Germans didn’t think so, at least not when they got a chance to make the choice.

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In Other News, Chavez Nationalizes Unsupported Objects For Falling

Via the Wall Street Journal:

President Hugo Chavez ordered Sunday the seizure of a French-owned retail chain on accusations that it raised prices after Venezuela devalued the currency by half.

“Until when are we going to allow this to happen?” Mr. Chavez asked during his Sunday television program in reference to the alleged price hike by Almacenes Exito SA, headquartered in Colombia and controlled by French retailer Casino Guichard-Perrachon S.A.

The Venezuelan leader said that new law may need to be approved to carry out the nationalization. “I’m waiting for the new law to begin the expropriation process,” he said. “There’s no going back,” he added.

Almacenes Exito saw some of its stores closed this week by government authorities on accusations that it was increasing prices regardless of Mr. Chavez’s orders that retailers were not to adjust prices after he devalued the currency to 4.3 bolivars per dollar from the previous rate of 2.15 bolivars.

When inflation kicks in here, no doubt we’ll be hearing about Ford’s morally unacceptable price-gouging, too.  Not to mention blaming the banks for high interest rates.

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PERA Nears A Deal – UPDATED

The Denver Post is reporting that negotiators are nearing a deal on PERA, the generous defined-benefit plan that most state workers have benefited from over the years:

The major changes to the Public Employees’ Retirement Association include increasing employee and employer contributions by 2 percent and reducing cost-of-living increases for current retirees from 3.5 percent this year, capping them at 2 percent….

Several issues remain to be resolved, most revolving around age of retirement and years of service needed to get full benefits, but both men said those issues could be resolved by the time lawmakers convene for their 120-day session next week….

So let’s assume that accounting for the government worked the same as accounting for a private pension.  In fact, in this case, there’s no good reason why it shouldn’t.   Basically, the plan has assets and obligations, but both of those change over time.   So the inputs to the model are 1) Actuarial Assessments, and 2) Interest Rate Assessments.

Actuarial assessments include things like Years of Service, Age of Retirement, Years of Benefits, Salary Increases (due to seniority), Benefit Increases (due to age).   Interest rate assessments include benefit inflation, health care inflation, discount rate, and return on plan assets.

The things that can be adjusted generally fall into Actuarial Assessments, and that’s where the article focuses.  Retirement age and years of service all fall into this category.  What’s critical is the stuff that’s left out.  We have no idea what the plan’s assumed rate of inflation, discount rate, rate of benefit inflation or health care inflation are, or what the assumed return on investment is.  We don’t know what they’ve assumed them to be in the past.  If those numbers are unrealistic, or even aggressive, we’ll likely find ourselves right back in the same place a few years from now.

Consider a simple scenario, where the plan assumes a constant 8% real return on plan assets.  Historically, this might be reasonable.  But if the bulk of the return is in the out years, the plan will have depleted its assets before those returns can catch up, and will run out of money.  (Cool graphs on this topic here.)  If you could forecast how returns would change over time, you’d have a more accurate model, but the fact is, as we’ve seen time and again, it’s impossible to make those sorts of predicts 5 years out, never mind 25 years out.  Which means that the solvency of any defined-benefit plan is mostly guesswork.  Promises of long-term solvency are simply mirages.

Maintaining a defined-benefit for incoming and even current employees  is not realistic (promises made to those already retired must be honored).  The only fair way to move forward is to transition to a defined-contribution plan, which has only assets, and by definitions, no liabilities.  Unfortunately, the political will for this move doesn’t seem to exist.

UPDATE: According to the actuarial projections accompanying PERA’s legislative recommendations, they are indeed projecting a constant 8.0% return for the next 30 years.  This strikes me as aggressive.  But they key point to remember is that these returns are never constant, and that the shape of that returns curve strongly affects the ending balance.  There is simply no way for even the best prognosticators to get that right, and worse, no acknowledgment in the docs that it even matters.

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