Archive for category Colorado Politics
Another Candidate, Another Poll
Posted by Joshua Sharf in Colorado Politics, Senate 2010 on September 16th, 2009
With Jane Norton’s entry into the Colorado Senate Race, Rasmussen has test-polled her against both Sen. Ben. and Romanoff. (No word on whether or not the controversies over Obama’s czars is hurting Andrew). It turns out she polls better than either Frazier or Buck against the Senator Select, leading 45-36, and beating Romanoff 42-34. Norton does well, 52-21, among unaffiliated voters, but that’s a very fluid voter bloc, given the high number of undecideds there.
Some of this, however, may be a result of polling sample. Last week, Rasmussen had Bennet’s very favorable-to-very unfavorable levels at 14-18, but this poll has them at 8-19. It’s hard to believe that Bennet has really suffered that much deterioration in one week – especially in numbers that are so low in absolute terms to begin with. The new sample also has Romanoff down 8 points, 12-20, in the very-favorable-to-very-unfavorable rating, which is just hard to believe given his general popularity when he left office earlier this year. Do people remember his active campaigning for his doomed baby, Amendment 59?
Norton certainly has higher name recognition than Frazier or Buck. All three are right at break-even in the Veries, but Buck is at 9-7 (16 total) and Frazier at 6-6 (12 total), while Norton polls 13-12. There’s no question that Bennet’s negatives are higher than his positives, but a sitting Senator with any sort of a record should have generated stronger feelings, especially in this political environment. As with Ritter, the election should be a referendum on the incumbent, but count on the SEIU and CODA to try to define all three Republicans simultaneously as right wing-nuts. Given that the public hasn’t really formed impressions of them yet, there’s plenty of room for them to prey on the uninformed.
Yet to be included in any Rasmussen poll is Tom Wiens. I spoke with Tom before the show on Sunday night, and he seemed very confident that he could compete with Norton in fundraising. The question is, can he compete with Bennet in the general for votes, or is he simply not electable outside of his base in the Springs?
UPDATE: A friend of mine from elsewhere in the state reminds me of another part of my conversation with Tom Wiens before the show Sunday evening. Tom stressed that he has extraordinarily good relationships with delegates from across the state, and that he expects to do very well at the state convention. While unlikely to win 70% there, an extremely strong showing could be enough to propel him through the primary in August. One caveat to this strategy is that, between higher caucus participation and the as-yet-unpredictable straw poll, it maybe harder for the traditional party caucus-goers to dominate the proceedings.
While it’s the official position of the Republican Party that all candidates are welcome, and that primaries make for stronger candidates, I do happen to believe those things. It’s a long road, people, and the raw poll numbers right now don’t mean much.
McInnis v. Penry v. Ritter
Posted by Joshua Sharf in Governor 2010 on September 11th, 2009
On the heels of its Colorado Senate poll showing good news for Ryan Frazier, Rasmussen has published a poll on the governor’s race that Scott McInnis supporters are touting, and that can’t make Gov. Ritter very happy. While McInnis leads Ritter 44-39, Penry polls in a dead heat with the next former governor, trailing 41-40. McInnis will spin this as showing he’s stronger against Ritter, although much of the strength vs. Penry is still a result of statewide name recognition. Penry will claim that despite still struggling to make himself known outside the party, almost half the state is ready to vote for him in the general.
Of greater interest, according to Rasmussen, is the very favorable-very unfavorable ratings for the Republican challengers. McInnis leads here with a +10 (18-8), while Penry trails at a -3 (8-11). Some of this may be that McInnis has been out of office for a while, and Penry is having to lead a party in office. I doubt that it’s due to Mike “The Headless Chicken” Huttner’s attempts to portray the financial crisis as the “Bush-Penry recession.”
The election should, of course, be a referendum on Ritter’s performance, and in this regard he’s in some serious trouble. Among those likely voters with strong opinions about his performance, Ritter has an abysmal -14 rating, with 29% strongly disapproving, and 15% strongly approving. He’s not getting points for not deferring to Big Labor on important issues, and one presumes that the Car Tax is beginning to take its toll.
However, the fact that only 20-25% of voters have strong opinions about the Republicans leaves room for the CODA spin machine and the MSM (but I repeat myself) to help define the Republicans, and at this point, McInnis is only slightly less vulnerable to that than Penry is. However, the legislative session is likely to be contentious, with the Democrats threatening to ram through a state-wide health care takeover of their own, and likely to pick fights on issues designed to paint Penry into a corner. How he manages that will go a long way to determining his viability in the primaries.
Wadhams Staying Put, It Seems
Posted by Joshua Sharf in Colorado Politics on September 8th, 2009
Amid rumors that State Party Chairman Dick Wadhams’s trip to Nevada might portend another full-time effort to unseat a Democrat Senate Majority Leader, comes a memo from Dick himself. The relevant parts are quoted below:
I just want to let you know that nothing can keep me from being a part of unseating a Democratic governor for the first time in 48 years, and the accidental senator he appointed.
…
My friend Sue Lowden, who recently resigned as Nevada Republican state chairman, asked me to make the presentation to a group of her supporters as she decides whether to challenge Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
As fun as that quick trip to Las Vegas was, my full time political agenda is here in my home state of Colorado, as state chairman of Colorado Republicans.
While stopping short of an outright, “I will not be going to Nevada to run Sue Lowden’s campaign, period,” it’s clearly intended as a reassurance to the party that it won’t be left leaderless, just as it appears to be regaining its footing here in Colorado.
Senator Bennet: “Fleeing From Colorado Families Tour”
Posted by Joshua Sharf in Colorado Politics, Senate 2010 on August 27th, 2009
100 tickets are available. Details, and the sign-up form for Sen. Bennett’s Health Care Lottery here: http://bennet.senate.gov/eventtickets
(We can only hope it works better than the Health Care Lottery the Democrats have in mind.)
Senator Bennet has been running from Front Range voters during the August recess. During his “Fleeing from Colorado Families Tour,” he scheduled only one event in Denver, an invitation-only discussion at Denver Health. (Photos here: http://bennet.senate.gov/about/updates/) You can see about a dozen doctors and nurses in the photo.
I can’t blame him for spending the summer in the high country and the western slope. If I didn’t have to work for a living, that’s where I’d be, too. But while I recognize the importance of including the entirety of our state in this debate, Sen. Bennet’s scarcity to most of Colorado’s population speaks volumes about his lack of confidence in the proposals he appears ready to embrace.
For most Coloradoans, this may be the only chance they get to confront their selected official on this issue. Let’s make the most of it.
To Whom It May Concern
Posted by Joshua Sharf in Colorado Politics on August 25th, 2009
Stay out. Just stay out for a while.
Now, it looks as though the NRSC isn’t getting involved in our Senate primary after all. At least not for now. I spoke with Dick Wadhams yesterday and he said that he hadn’t seen any indications that the NRSC was getting ready to jump in. They do usually coordinate this sort of thing with the state party chairman in question, and he hadn’t heard anything. He repeated his adamant position that he isn’t taking sides, and that he trusts the process to sort out the best candidates for the party.
That said, it’s not as though the NRSC hasn’t pulled stunts like this in the past. And to be sure, that Pennsylvania seat is the reason the Dems are still one vote shy of 60 in the Senate. Oh, wait. Never mind. Well, it’d be even worse without Lincoln Chaffee up there in Rhode Island to..what’s that? Wow. Still, you have to admit, favored candidate Charlie Crist did himself some good today…then again.
There’s no secret that the NRSC, looking from a great distance, doesn’t have great confidence in the declared field thus far. And there’s no secret that Jane Norton will be a dynamite fundraiser for herself, especially from out of state, leaving the NRSC free to deploy money elsewhere.
But the NRSC’s involvement most resembles the conservative theory of arms control: where it’s needed, it’s not effective, and where it’s effective, it’s not needed. Mrs. Norton is far from a sure thing as a campaigner; she’s never won office on her own, becoming Lt. Governor as part of the Bill Owens steamroller in 2002.
I can’t actually endorse boycotts of Republican organizations, but it stuff like this, as well as rumors that the NRSC is trying to knock Pat Toomey off in a primary, that encourage Republicans to withhold their money from the NRSC.
And Hugh. What’s with CD-4? With the exception of a certain state house race with the credibility of the party at stake – we don’t forget our friends – you’ve not exactly had a sterling record in picking winners here. I know you and Tom Lucero are friends, but Cory Gardner’s a fine candidate up there, and Congress is a logical step up for a state legislator. Your involvement here is somewhat less problematic than the NRSC’s meddling, since you’re not part of the official party hierarchy, but I’m really not sure you’re making the right call up there, and in a situation with two credible candidate, shouldn’t this sort of thing be left to the citizens?
When I ran last year, it was often frustrating both for me and for party officials to have to keep their mouths shut about my primary. But I emerged as a better candidate, and one with more credibility, for having won without the state party or the county party getting officially involved. Now, as one of those party officials, I can tell you that having someone come in from out of state and bigfoot the people here on the ground doing the work is not only annoying, it’s insulting.
When we have a nominee or a clear front-runner, feel free to come on in. But until then, how about letting Coloradoans sort out Colorado’s representation?
Civil Society Subsumed
Posted by Joshua Sharf in Budget on August 20th, 2009
A couple of weeks ago, the Mercatus Center noticed that Brad Pitt’s non-profit was seeking stimulus money for its mission to help rebuild New Orleans:
The Make It Right Foundation (profiled here on ABC’s 20/20) — as well as dozens if not hundreds of other local initiatives and non-profits — have done incredible work in rebuilding the Gulf Coast after Hurricane Katrina. But much of this success is due to their independence from large government bureaucracies. Stimulus funding has the potential to act as what Jane Jacobs called “cataclysmic money.” There is a real danger that if social entrepreneurs and non-profits like Pitt’s become dependent upon federal funds, they will in effect become arms of the federal government. This would have a dangerous effect on civil society, and reduce our resilience to disasters and shocks, whether natural or economic. (emphasis added -ed.)
Well, the news is that this has pretty much already happened with lots of non-profits. Many derive the overwhelming portion of their income from Medicare/Medicaid, or from state government grants and purchases of their services. Here in Colorado, for instance, Jewish Family Services reported in 2007 that roughly $2.5 million of $7 million in contributions, or 36%, came from government grants. Compare this with something like the Gathering Place, a drop-in shelter for homeless women, which received no direct government aid, and whose government purchases amounted to less than 10% of total income. No wonder organizations like JFS were lined up around the block to support Referendum C.
The degree to which these non-profits have become courtiers, to which they’ve essentially outsourced their fundraising operations to governments and a couple of lobbyists, is probably largely unknown to the public. It’s a whole new dependency class. If these guys get their way, there will soon be another effort to raise taxes, this time in the middle of a recession. And once again, the government-dependent non-profits will be complaining about how their critical services are about to be cut.
As Arnold Kling has pointed out, the ability to exit is ultimately more important than the ability to vote. The reason these non-profits are more responsive in the first place is that failure has consequences in their ability to fundraise.
Wherein Senator Carroll Takes Offense
Posted by Joshua Sharf in Budget on July 31st, 2009
This comes along with a de-friending with extreme prejudice. The main effect of which is to keep me from following the thread on her profile, and to check to see if indeed there were any Facebook invitations to the business members of the mutual assurance company to come testify. However, far from being left out, all three parties are already, by the enabling legislation, represented on the committee:
(III) THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER OF PINNACOL ASSURANCE, OR HIS OR HER DESIGNEE;
(IV) A MEMBER OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS OF PINNACOL ASSURANCE DESIGNATED BY SUCH BOARD;
…
(VI) EACH OF THE FOLLOWING APPOINTED JOINTLY BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE SENATE, MINORITY LEADER OF THE SENATE, SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, AND MINORITY LEADER OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES:
(A) A POLICYHOLDER INSURED BY PINNACOL ASSURANCE;
(B) AN INJURED WORKER; AND
(C) A MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC WHO HAS KNOWLEDGE OF THE COLORADO WORKERS’ COMPENSATION SYSTEM.
Sen. Carroll’s posting said nothing about businesses or Pinnacol, the latter of which hardly needed an invitation to participate in a committee it already sits on. What’s at issue here is the propriety of the chairman of the committee, on a Facebook page rather than on her private home page, and not on the committee page, issuing an invitation to one – and only one – of the three parties to come air their complaints. The injured worker and the policyholder would, it would seem, be capable of handling that on their own.
In fact, yesterday’s Denver Post carried an article about the matter, suggesting that Pinnacol already sees the committee moving in one direction:
Ross was concerned about the direction the committee was taking, saying: “The focus or slant of this seems to not be an open study but more of Pinnacol under a microscope.”
Carroll has asked that injured workers whose claims were handled by Pinnacol contact her with their stories. She said she expected injured workers to testify during the hearings.
Asked about the proposal from Ross, Carroll said it was premature to be talking about any such deals.
“There’s a ton of data and a ton of questions all over the place,” Carroll said. “To argue for a conclusion on a committee that hasn’t even started its work yet” isn’t helpful, she said.
(Carroll’s claim that Pinnacol’s trying to put a solution on the table, “isn’t helpful,” is disingenuous to say the least, given her eagerness to solve the problem in her own way this Spring, without such a committee or any investigation.)
Her claims of impartiality are further undermined by the following press release, issued Tuesday:
Senate Chamber
State of Colorado
DenverMEDIA ADVISORY
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Tuesday, July 28, 2009CONTACT
Abigail Vacanti (303) 866-4882
Jack Wylie (303) 866-SEEKING INPUT FROM INJURED WORKERS!
Sen. Carroll asks for public testimony for Pinnacol CommitteeDENVER- Are you an injured worker or a family member of an injured worker who’s claim was handled by Pinnacol Assurance? What was your experience like? We’d like to hear from you! If you are interested in telling us your story, please email the Committee Chair, Senator Morgan Carroll (D-Aurora), at morgan@senmorgancarroll.com.
The tone, the exclamation points, (the inability to distinguish “who’s” and “whose” are another matter), all point to an interest in attracting those with a negative story to tell. It’s unlikely that very many people whose story amounts to, “I filed and claim and it was handled expeditiously and fairly,” are going to show up to defend an insurance company, those carpet-bombing villains, they. I’m sure some will take the time to communicate with the committee. I think it’s equally clear what Sen. Carroll’s level of interest in those letters will be.
Anyone with even brief experience knows how easily such hearings can be turned into parades of discontent. No doubt there are some workers who have been treated unfairly by the company. Likewise, there are either malingerers or those whose injuries were not work related who may use such a forum to play on the public’s natural sympathy. One questions whether the committee will have the time or interest in re-playing those cases fully enough to screen them out.
In short, nothing that Sen. Carroll has done, from her snide email reply to a resident, to her tempermental behavior on Facebook, does anything to set one’s mind at ease about the intent of these hearings.
Sen. Carroll Responds – Unpersuasively
Posted by Joshua Sharf in Budget on July 29th, 2009
Yesterday, we noted that State Sen. Morgan Carroll had been used her Facebook page to troll for complaints about Pinnacol’s claims processing. That prompted the following Facebook exchange between Sen. Carroll and a Colorado resident (forwarded to me by the resident, who wishes to remain anonymous):
Resident: Today at 5:17am
I am dismayed at your continued attempt to destroy a valuable resource for Colorado. Your current witchhunt to find negative stories to paint Pinnacol in a negative light is nothing but a blatant political stunt and is clearly seen as such. The money accumulated as reserves of Pinnacol were paid into it for an EXPLICIT reason and not a simply pile of cash for you to spend on whatever causes you deem worthy.Morgan Carroll: Today at 6:51am
This committee is a fact-finding committee. Your loyalty to this political subdivision of the State of Colorado is laudable and I am sure they appreciate it.Resident: Today at 7:06am
What is the reason or a need for such “fact finding” exercise at this juncture?Morgan Carroll: Today at 7:10am
It’s about about 15 years since the legislature that created this structure has reviewed it. Their surpluses (very high compared to national) have raised the question for some as to whether (a) policyolders (businesses) are being over-charged; or (b) whether claims to injured workers are underpaid. Neither or both may be the case. We don’t know yet. Likewise, they want us to consider privatizing them. That would require evidence and an act of the legislature to do.
Color me unpersuaded. Aside from the snide response to somewhat aggressive questioning, it’s simply not credible that someone would use a social networking site – designed for self-selection of people with mostly consonant views – to find a diverse set of opinions about anything. Especially when her official website, which would probably draw a broader range of readership, lacks any such appeal.
The senator makes a point of referring to Pinnacol as a “political subdivision,” which it surely is. That permits the state to determinte by statute the disposition of its assets. But the bill itself changes the law to permit that seizure. And it basically lies in its preamble, saying, “…clarigying the laws governing Pinnacol Assurance’s funds.” It doesn’t so much “claify” as ‘turn inside out.” It eliminates its operation as a mutual insurance company, and specifically transfers control over the company’s assets to the state. Here’s the relevant section as it reads now:
The moneys in the Pinnacol Assurance fund shall be continuously available for the purposes of this article and shall not be transferred to or revert to the general fund of the state at the end of any fiscal year. All revenues, moneys, and assets of Pinnacol Assurance belong solely to Pinnacol Assurance. The state of Colorado has no claim to nor any interest in such revenues, moneys, and assets and shall not borrow, appropriate, or direct payments from such revenues, moneys, and assets for any purpose.
Seems clear enough. The reserve fund and any profits belong to the company, not to the state. The legislation would have repealed that section in its entirely.
So let’s be clear here: the bill that Sen Morgan Carroll, supposedly neutral leader of a “fact-finding” committee, voted for, removes the fiscal independence of Pinnacol, seizes $500,000,000 of surplus premiums paid into that fund specifically to provide coverage, says nothing about reviewing anything that the interim committee is tasked to explore.
“Fact-finding” committees frequently find whatever facts they set out looking for. There email exchange, in tenor and content, make it pretty clear what facts Sen. Carroll has in mind to uncover.
Freeze It, Personalize It, Polarize It
Posted by Joshua Sharf in Budget on July 28th, 2009
Thus goes Rule #12 of Saul Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals. And thus goes Sen. Morgan Carroll, chairman of the Interim Study Committee for issues related to Pinnacol Assurance, the state’s largest Worker’s Compensation insurer. Just moments ago, Sen. Carroll posted the following on her Facebook page:

There is no question in my mind that this is the beginning of an attempt to demonize the company, in order to gain public political support for confiscating its cash and subsidize the Democrats’ spending habits for another year.
This legislative session, the Democrats floated the idea of seizing $500 million of Pinnacol’s reserve in order to help meet the budget gap for this year and next. The idea was mercifully laid over in the House. But it passed the Senate 19-14, will Sen. Carroll voting in favor.
Pinnacol is more than capable of making its own case on the merits. But it needs to avoid the mistake that many companies make, and realize that this is a political fight, not a policy argument. There are far too many Democrats who see all that cash and immediately, their eyes fill with dollar signs like a character in a Warner Bros. cartoon.
Grabbing for the nearest pile of Scrooge McDuck’s gold may be viscerally satisfying to those who, well, don’t have it. But it’s a horrifying idea for at least three reasons:
- It feeds, rather than cures, the state’s spending addictions. No need here to recount the sorry story of Referendum C. If Ref C was a drunk running a tab, pillaging Pinnacol would be a smash-and-grab from the plate glass of the liquor store. It provides barely a year to hobble by. And at the end of that year, if it’s 1982 and not 1931, and if revenues, always a trailing economic measure, begin to recover and if we haven’t found those stimulus strings to be too onerous, then maybe we can survive through the next business cycle
- Argentina. This really is a smash-and-grab. It’s almost certainly illegal, and it will certainly discourage business from locating here. The money isn’t the state’s to take, and there’s no particularly good reason to stop at an insurance company. Pretty much any business with a large pile of cash lying around could find itself threatened.
- It could ruin the company. Oh, maybe not today. But the whole point of a Black Swan is that you never see it coming, because it’s never happened before. Unlike assembly lines, insurance companies like to have large pools of liquidity lying around the shop floor. It’s not as though they’ve converted it into gold and visit the vault every once in a while to stare at it a la Jack Benny. They’ve invested the money, so it’s out there working. But it’s also available in case there’s a large claim. Just suppose something more virulent than H1N1 infects a workplace. Suppose that Swift plant up in Weld County gets sick, and the workers get sick because they were at work; if they’re insured through Pinnacol, guess who’s on the hook.
So Sen. Carroll has decided to try to turn the heat up on Pinnacol. It’s dirty pool against a responsible company.



