about
A Virginian on both my parents’ sides, I’ve lived in Colorado for almost 14 years. I’ve done (and still do) web development, and financial analysis, I’ve run for office, started this blog and a couple of others, hosted and guest-hosted talk radio.
This blog is mostly about politics, because of its immediacy and never-ending source of grist for the mill. But it’s also about other stuff, like sports, Judaism, history, the odd TV show or movie (even TV shows about movies), and trips I happen to take. A lot of those pieces show up elsewhere on the site, too.
I’m also a Senior Fellow in Fiscal Policy at the Independence Institute, where I’ve written extensively about Colorado’s public pensions, and other topics of interest.
I currently live in Denver with my wife Susie and son David.
- No trackbacks yet.
#1 by RogerDub on June 24th, 2015
Hi Joshua,
Enjoyed your recent PERA article at Complete Colorado, June 24, 2015.
I’ve always thought PERA should dump the in-house management and let Vanguard run their investments with a passive, indexed approach.
For example, in 2014 a portfolio of 60% Total Stock Market Index and 40% of Total Bond Market Index would have returned 9.8%.
Vanguard historical returns are available in an easy to use spreadsheet linked at http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Simba's_backtesting_spreadsheet
If enough PERA stakeholders understood the true “costs” of in-house PERA management, the path to reform might be eased.
A side benefit would expose the folly of the 7.5% projected returns. Look at the 60/40 returns for 2000 through 2008 …. 1.2%. Or from 2000 – 2014 … 5.6%.
Yes, from the last 30 years (1985-2014) the nominal return was 9.8%, but we’re not starting with 1985 interest rates, so bonds are going to be a drag for at least the next 10 years.
Keep up the good work.
RogerDub