Archive for category Colorado Politics

Ritter Withdraws

Governor Bill Ritter will not seek re-election.  The stead dripdripdrip of bad news seems to have driven him from the race.

It seems as though at least two of these stories are connected, with the possibility that Ritter was using his personal cellphone for state business, and then shielding that usage from public scrutiny in order to hide his affair.  Of course, it could also be that he’s not enjoying the job, isn’t very good at it, and has had enough.  We’ll know more tomorrow.

From the Republican side, the assumption is that CoDA has already named his successor in the race, and that it will be either for House Speaker Andrew Romanoff or Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, both of whom have fairly high positives and a campaign base to draw from in heavily-Democrat Denver.  Ross Kaminsky analyzes the options here.  It’s a good piece, but I think he gives Romanoff too little credit, and Hickenlooper too much.

Romanoff is already a statewide figure, with connections on the western slope and down south that Hickenlooper doesn’t really have.  He was in the process of running a statewide race, and now won’t have the sitgma of attacking a sitting Democrat.  On the other hand, he’s been running to Bennet’s left in this race, and now owns those positions, which might undermine his reputation as a moderate consensus-builder.  And he was the father of the failed Amendment 59, which would have gutted the Taxpayer Bill of Rights to fund the Teachers Unions.

Hickenlooper, on the other hand, has a Denver handicap that Romanoff has already overcome.  Denver doesn’t scale well to the rest of the state.  It bears roughly the same relationship to the eastern plains, the high country, and the western slope that NYC has to upstate and Long Island – people don’t much trust Denver.  They may well vote against a Denver mayor more quickly.  There’s a reason that Colorado governors come from the legislature, and not from the Denver mayor’s office.

Denver mayors have more power than Colorado governors when it comes to budgeting, which might actually strengthen the argument for a fiscally conservative Republican legislature, in a year when there are any number of already-vulnerable Dems.  Denver isn’t a basket-case, to be sure.  But it has benefitted greatly from the Democrats’ car tax in order to stay sane.  If Hickenlooper is the nominee, Republican City Councilman Jeanne Fatz will probably become veyr popular very quickly as a speaker on hidden lunacy in Denver’s budget.  And Denver’s share of the Stimulus Money will also come under closer scrutiny.

There’s an assumption that either Romanoff or Hickenlooper would make things harder on a Denver Republican party struggling to recover from years of decline.  But if Hickenlooper is the nominee, the focus on his record from the McInnis campaign may actually end up helping us out.

So my money’s on CoDA nominating their old bag man, Romanoff.

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Lt. Governor Penry?

Since this possibility has been raised, I think maybe some ideas from outside might be helpful to avoid groupthink.

In my opinion, this move carries significant political risk, and will not likely achieve its intended objective.

Josh Penry as Lt. Gov won’t placate the Tea Party people. It may well infuriate them even more. It won’t raise McInnis’s standing any, and they might well label Penry as a sell-out, based on a fairly pedestrian career move.  He’ll be passing up staying in the state Senate where he could have held McInnis to his promises, for an opportunity to run interference for him. And it will totally freeze out Dan Maes, who at this point is their only opportunity cast a vote before everything’s decided.

Ironically, Jane Norton’s candidacy probably hurts this decision’s effectiveness, as one of her main liabilities is her tie to Referendum C & D. If she had no choice but to support them, then Penry will have no choice but to support McInnis, who hasn’t yet proven anything about himself to the Tea Partiers.

From Penry’s point of view (and the party’s, I think) it’s a waste of his talents. Go back and look at a list of lieutenant governors. Yes, Gail Schoettler came within a thousand votes or so of making something from the office. But other than that, you have to go back to McNichols and 1956, 52 years, to find anyone who got elected to high office from being #2. McInnis ought to know that better than anyone, since Mike Callihan failed against him for Congress after being Lt. Governor.

In fact, Lt. Governor has been pretty much an unmitigated stepping-stone to obscurity.  Nancy Dick lost to Bill Armstrong for Senate.  Mike Callihan lost to McInnis.  Schoettler lost to Bill Owens, and Joe Rogers placed out of the money in the Republican primary in the 7th Congressional District’s inaugural run. So if Penry just sacrificed a gubernatorial run in order to preserve that bright career, he may be on the verge of tossing that away, too.

I realize it’s easy to carp from the outside.  But it’s also sometimes easier to see that what looks like a really good idea based on traditional politics probably isn’t as hot as it sounds.

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Sean Duffy Interview

Earlier this week, I sat down with the Sean Duffy, the Communications Director for the Scott McInnis for Governor campaign. We discussed a number of issues, from state budget issues and small business, to his sometimes contentious relationship with the Tea Party movement.

I post the interview here, without my own editorial comment, but soliciting your own.

Introduction
Platform for Prosperity
Fox News & the Tea Parties
Outreach to the Tea Parties
Impressions of the Tea Parties
Federal Encroachment
Stimulus Money
State Revenues
The Car Tax
Small Business
Health Insurance
Comprehensive Budget Plan

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The Prospects of the Platform for Prosperity

Quite good, actually.  The platform is a smart one.  Sticks to fiscal issues and personal liberty, in an election where those issues will come to the fore.  It’s a platform that I can endorse wholeheartedly and without reservation.

Still, there’s the issue of the messenger:

But Nikki Mata, a conservative activist in suburban Denver, said that such a strategy misses the point of the tea-party movement. Endorsements and platforms matter less to her and her fellow activists, she said, than their gut feelings about whether a candidate would shake things up — or would cave in to the establishment.

Ben and Michael have already hit this, but there’s more to be said here.

I like Nikki a lot; she and Lori Horn hatched the R Block Party in the wake of last year’s debacle, and it’s one of the highest-profile, best-attended activist groups in the area.

McInnis needs not to underestimate the amount of work he has to do here. Republicans have not forgotten the damage done to the party’s core values by Bill Owens’s support for Referendum C.  McInnis already finds himself defending his “clarifications” on the massively unpopular FASTER car tax.  Asking Republicans to push those doubts aside in the name of “unity” is likely to ring hollow.  That McInnis currently holds no office works against him with this group in two ways: first, he has no chance to demonstrate his credibility now, and second, he held office during that period when Republicans lost their way.  He’ll have to show that he wasn’t part of that herd.

If not persuaded – and it behooves them to be persuadable – , Sondermann is half-right.  They have no place to go, but home.

I hope that McInnis realizes that simply putting out a platform – under pressure from wanting Josh Penry’s endorsement and the threat of a Tom Tancredo candidacy – isn’t by itself going to satisfy those who are looking for someone who truly believes.  So far, I haven’t seen much evidence of this, but it’s possible that with the nomination apparently in hand, McInnis can now turn his hardball tactics towards Ritter, and genuinely reach out to the activists.

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Mortgages in Colorado

For a long time, we’ve been hearing about how the housing market in Colorado isn’t as bad as in the rest of the country, and there’s some truth to it.  We’re routinely at or near the top of the Case-Shiller index, and foreclosures have tended to lag behind the rest of the country.  But there may be some serious trouble on the horizon.  According to a study in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal, almost 25% of US mortgages are underwater.  That’s not 25% of homeowners, since those without mortgages by definition aren’t underwater, but it’s still a pretty serious number.

Colorado does not fare particularly well in this survey.  While the national average is 23%, 19% of Colorado mortgages are underwater, good for 11th in the country.  An additional 7.8% of Colorado’s mortgages are with 5% of being underwater, 2nd-worst in the country.  With a loan-to-value ratio of 72%, Colorado is 9th-worst in the country.  (The worst in that category is Harry Reid’s own Nevada with a staggering 114% loan-to-value ratio, 23 percentage points worse than 2nd-place Arizona.)

So obviously, Gov. Ritter, the legislature, and the state Supreme Court thing that the right thing to do is to raise property taxes on these homeowners who are already going to have cash flow problems.

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Politicos In Training

This afternoon, I had a chance to tour the YMCA’s Youth In Government program in action.  This week is their annual mock state government here in Denver, and none other than the Governor himself, Dalton Curry, showed me around.  Rep. Ellen Roberts had mentioned her support of the program when we interviewed her on the RMA’s Blog Talk Radio show.  The students model the whole legislative process, from committee work to floor sessions, with a Supreme Court to rule on Constitutionality.  From what I heard and saw, they took it pretty seriously, from drafting bills to the floor debate.  They get to meet in the actual committee rooms, the actual Senate and House chambers, and the Supreme Court meets in the Old Supreme Court Chambers.

At the end of the session, the delegates elect the officers for the following year, including the governor and lt. governor, which makes it more of a parliamentary system, I suppose.

Back in high school, when I still thought the UN was worth something, I participated in the Model UN program.  This seems to be a more worth endeavor.

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More On That Stimulus Money

So I thought, for just a moment, that I had figured out just how Colorado’s Congressional delegation got expanded to upwards of 64 districts.  There are two parts to the report – who got the contract and where the work will actually be done.  So for this contract, the work is done at Ft. Drum, NY’s CD-23.  And here, there’s no Congressional District at all, I suppose.  But, alas, it turns out that Colorado’s 23rd Congressional District isn’t mentioned at all on the list, so that can’t be it.  It would have made sense, them confusing our Bill Owens for their Bill Owens, but no.

So looking at the list of recipients, I see where Nederland Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, and Heating Corporation received $91,595.  I’m not even going to ask.

And about that $912 that the Teller County School District received, that was apparently part of a larger, $10,037 grant.  The $912 was for infrastructure, but the project description mentions none of that:

No jobs were created. Funding is being used to assist current employees in obtainining credentialing and improving educational background. Employees are also being trained to communicate with two Hispanic families moving into the area.

So no jobs were created.  Current employees are getting to go to enrichment programs, which I’m sure will no doubt raise their market value when they decide to move, and someday may help their young charges do better at school, but hardly counts as “stimulative.”  Likewise the Rosetta Stone software they’re getting for the new families moving in.  No reason at all to use the money teaching those families English, which is of far greater economic value in an English-speaking country, one would think.

Ah, the Stimulus, the gift that keeps on giving, although not quite in the way it was advertised.  Go look at the lists yourself!  It’s hours of good, clean fun!

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Weep Not, Ben; Other Opportunities Abound

Sadly, Rocky Mountain Alliance Blogger Ben DeGrow has declined the chance to run in Colorado’s 7th Congressional District.  Maybe he’s angling for one of those jobs created in the Colorado 30th.

That’s right.  At the bargain price of just of $1 million, the Federal Government has created or saved 14 jobs in CD-30.  Of course, the additional 14 jobs created in CD-64 came for only $33,000.  Of course, the folks down in Greenwood Village, who saw 650 jobs created, at a net loss of $111 million to that zip code, are positively steaming with jealousy.  And I’m sure that the New Energy Economy will benefit from the loss of $60 million locally by the National Science Foundation.  And, Teller County Schools, don’t spend all $912 in one place.  Yeah, I’m talkin’ to you, Michelle.

Of course, we know this is all true, since Governor Ritter has signed a Statement of Transparency stating that he intends to ask for and spend the Stimulus money involved.

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Senate Field Gets More Crowded

BREAKING: Tom Wiens has formally filed papers as a candidate for the US Senate race here in Colorado.

Quickly noted: Wiens appears to have great confidence in his ability to fundraise competitively with Jane Norton, and he has deep ties to the party activists who have been frequent caucus-goers and state Assembly delegates.  He has strength in El Paso and Douglas Counties, both Republican strongholds.  All of this helps him in the primary.

Whether or not the Dems can successfully portray him as “too conservative” is open to question, but I’m sure that will be their line of attack.

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Election Day in Colorado

While lacking the national cache of N-23 or a govenor’s race in a bellwether state (that comes next year), Colorado does have some election activity of its own this year.  With the usual caveats about off-year turnout, here are some of the more interesting races to keep an eye on.

  • In Douglas County, the non-partisan school board race has turned partisan, as the teachers’ unions try to seize control of that body in a heavily Republican county.  The local Republican party has responded by endorsing a slate of four candidates of its own.  Good luck to Dan GerkenDoug Benevento, Meghann Silverthorn and incumbent John Carson
  • In Denver, voters will elect some of the new school board as well.  I’m personally supporting Mary Seawell, who’s a big booster of Charter Schools.  She’ll probably cruise to victory fairly easily.
  • Denver will also decide whether or not to require police officers to impound the vehicle of someone found driving without a license.  Widely seen as targeting illegal immigrants, the law does provide an out for someone whom the officer can determine has a license and insurance, but that hasn’t kept the so-called progressives from emailing energetically about the unfairness of it all.  The state auditor finally got around to reporting on this issue yesterday, as voting ends.  Look for this to fail.
  • And last but not least, my friend Katie Witt is running for City Council up in Longmont, the more Republican area of Boulder County, and we’re all looking forward to a win up there for her.

So while the Tea Party Express rolls into town, CCU has its Governor Canddiates’ Forum, and the Mayor of Jerusalem speaks over at DU, we’ll be watching New Jersey, Virginia, New York, Maine, and Washington State.

And a little action closer to home, too.

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