|
|
« October 2008 |
Main
| December 2008 »
November 30, 2008
He's Not Black
Unless the one-drop rule still applies, our president-elect is not black.
We call him that -- he calls himself that -- because we use dated language and logic. After more than 300 years and much difficult history, we hew to the old racist rule: Part-black is all black. Fifty percent equals a hundred. There's no in-between.
Naturally, when Rush Limbaugh says this, he's a racist. I tried it at dinner one evening, and all I got was silence and an eventual, "no comment," from the one Democrat present.
I'm sure it will also come as a surprise to the NAACP, the SCLC, and Donna Brazile.
November 29, 2008
Blog Talk Radio
We'll be visiting with Todd Bensman of the San Antonio Express-News. Todd is the author of the series, "Breaching America," about the vulnerability of our southern border to threats from the Middle East. He's also followed the growing Iranian presence in Central America, and other facets of the connection between border security and national security.
Every Tuesday Night at 9! Archives are Forever.
November 28, 2008
Newspaper Finance - II
The Balance Sheet
Put simply, American newspaper companies have too much debt, and have been fooling themsevles about how much equity they have. When they went through that period of consolidation a few years back, the surviving (so far) companies vastly overpaid for the properties they bought, thinking that either they could turn them around or that the names would translate into sales. Then they borrowed agains these "assets," and have thus robbed themselves of whatever flexibility they had.
Here are the assets of the seven companies we've been looking at so far:
The bars represent the total assets. The blue represents something called, "Goodwill," the red, everything else. Goodwill is, roughly speaking, the vigorish that you pay for a company. Essentially, according to accounting rules, you're not allowed to pay more for something than it's worth. What you pay for it is what it's worth. So if you pay $4 million for a company whose net assets are valued at $3 million, after the buyout you put down the extra $1 million as an asset called, "Goodwill." It can generously be interpreted as extra cash you think the property should generate over time.
But it's a guess, an estimation, and can also serve as a slush line item to hide the fact that you just overpaid by 50% for a name that isn't generating any ad revenue any more, but that People Trust. It used to be that Goodwill was amortized over a period of time. Now, it has to be re-examined as often as necessary, and written down as appropriate.
Let's take a look at what's going to happen, as accountants realize that if the New York Times can't sell ad space, neither will the Podunk Press they sunk $2.5 extra large into five years ago, and that all the Goodwill in the world isn't going to change the fact that Iowans are getting their news from here and their local advertising from here.
The other rule here, so basic it's been known since the Italian Renaissance as the Accounting Rule is that Assets = Liabilities + Equity. If I write down an asset, I also need to subtract a like amount from either liabilities or equity. Since Goodwill isn't exactly a loan, likely it'll come out of equity. Here are the Owners' Equity lines from these companies, before and after Goodwill is subtracted:
That's right, boys and girls. Four of these Titans of Type go from having positive equity to negative equity, meaning they owe more than their companies are worth. And this is a completely defensible assessment. Given the current market, and the likelihood of how these will develop, you can't sell that Goodwill on the open market, because people apparently have resorted to paying what things are worth.
Now all of these companies have some long-term debt, although the Washington Post company seems to have made an effort to pay its down to minimal levels. Typically, I don't want debt-to-equity to be more than about 1. I know, there was a time not so very long ago when investors liked leverage. Because after all, we'd always be able to refinance that, wouldn't we? But I was never comfortable with huge debt-equity ratios.
Naturally, the D-E are calculating including Goodwill. Here's what happens when you subtract the Goodwill from the equity, and recalculate:
Not much fun. Of course, four of them go from positive to negative, including USA Today, which looked safe. The Journal newspapers only edge up to 1.30, and the NY Times - whoa, there, Pinch! - run up from a safe-looking 0.75 to almost 3.2. Only the Washington Post manages to stay sober.
These companies have been fooling themselves about the state of their balance sheets, believing that they had better balance than they did, because they were counting on revenues that will never materialize.
Now, I know what you're thinking. Debt's ok if you can pay it. Well, as we'll see next time, that's a problem, too.
Baruch Dayan HaEmet
It is now confirmed that the Islamic terrorists who attacked Mumbai on Thursday butchered all of their hostages in the Jewish center, including Rabbi Gavriel Noach Holtzberg and his wife, Rivka. Whether they did this before Indian security stormed the building isn't known, but there's no reason to think the attackers were planning to keep them alive.
As Powerline reader Barry Shaw points out:
From the start British and American coverage concentrated on the hotels with stress of the targeting of British and Americans. The Jewish target was ignored until day two and day three. The two luxury hotels were selected by the terrorists because they are occupied by tourists. People who escaped from the hotels claimed that the terrorists asked for British and Americans. However, they were selected because they were foreigners.
Nariman House was selected by the terrorists because the Chabad building was a specific Jewish target that also included Israelis. Let me make this clear. Chabad House was the only target chosen by the terrorists in Mumbai because of its specific character - Jewish and Israeli. Hostages in Chabad House were killed because they were Jewish and Israeli.
Yet this terror venue was largely ignored by most of the Western media until the final day.
In a longer piece assessing Pakistan's role over the years, over at her PajamasMedia gig, the Rocky's Bridget Johnson doesn't miss the point:
Out of the longstanding tussle for Kashmir, Pakistan unleashed the evil likely responsible for storming through the streets of Mumbai, breaking into hospitals to shoot patients, spewing gunfire on train commuters, and attacking any location where Westerners and Jews may be -- after all, why should the jihad stop at India?
The media's mischaracterization of the nature of the enemy serious colors our perception of this war. I was on the phone yesterday with a relative, conveying Thanksgiving best wishes, when the subject of the attack on the Nariman House came up. This person, Jewish, politically aware, usually centrist but who voted for McCain largely on security issues, said that it wasn't as though the terrorists' attack on the Nariman House had anything to do with their being Jewish. That the attack was just because they were western. This person ought to have known better, but because most people don't notice things that aren't pointed out, I had to work to convince them otherwise.
As for the Indians storming the buildings, I suspect the lives of the hostages were forfeit, anyway. If ever in the unfortunate situation of being in a building seized by Islamist terrorists, it would make sense, therefore, to act accordingly.
November 27, 2008
But Don't Call Them Anti-Semitic, or Anything
It's not just westerners:
From the NYT:
The Chabad-Lubavitch center, the local outpost of a global group that promotes Judaism, is located in Nariman House, one of the buildings that has been attacked in Mumbai.
The whereabouts of Rabbi Gavriel, who runs the center, and his wife, Rivka, remain "unknown," according to the group.
And the Moderate Voice is also following the story.
Just remember, to these barbarians, Jews anywhere, anytime, are fair game.
November 25, 2008
A Thanksgiving Prayer
Michelle Malkin read this, her own composition from Thanksgiving 2001, at the Independence Institute Founders Dinner a couple of weeks ago.
Dear Heavenly Father,
As we gather for this Thanksgiving dinner, we count our blessings, one by one, and as the list of good things which thou hast given us grows longer and longer, we realize how little appreciation we have expressed for this thy bounty:
For redwoods, white plains, and the wild blue yonder, for Yellowstone and brownstones, for evergreen trees and orange groves, for little pink houses and purple mountain majesties, for every divinely painted acre of this sweet land of liberty, we give thee praise.
For Idaho potatoes and Texas toast, for Washington apples and Hawaiian pineapples, for Iowa corn and Maryland crab cakes, for Ohio cherries and Florida strawberries, for Philly cheese steaks and New York cheesecakes, for Maine lobster and Mississippi mud pie, for every home-cooked meal and home-grown harvest, we give thee praise.
O God, our help in ages past, our hope for years to come, we thank you this day for Northern Lights and Southern hospitality, for weekends in New England, for moonlight over Miami, for California dreaming, for a New York state of mind, for Okies and Aggies, for Motown and O-town, for Silicon Valley and the Shenandoah Valley, for the San Fernando Valley and Valley Forge, for Bunker Hill and the Black Hills, for the Grand Canyon and the Rio Grande, for Pebble Beach and the Jersey shore.
For American ingenuity and American enterprise, for American-made and American-born, for Americans abroad and Americans at heart, we give thee praise.
For the NYPD and the NYFD, for the MDs and EMTs, for Army rangers, for Navy Seals, for Air Force cadets, for Marine Corps reserves, and for all who serve, we thank them, and we thank you, O God, our creator and redeemer.
For "Let's roll," for "We're going up," for "What should I tell the captain?" for "You're going to be alright, brother," for "Take care of the kids," for "I love you, honey," for "We will not fail," for "United we stand," and for "Never forget," we offer eternal thanks.
For Psalm 23, for Ecclesiastes 3, for "How Great Thou Art," for "Morning Has Broken," for "Amazing Grace," and for "Be Not Afraid," we give thee praise.
For "E Pluribus Unum" and "Semper Fidelis," for "God Bless America" and "In God We Trust," for "We the people" and "Of the people, by the people, for the people," for "Don't tread on me," for "Give me liberty or give me death," for "These are the times that try men's souls," for "the land of the free and the home of the brave," we give thee praise.
For iron will, for steely resolve, for mettle tested and time-worn, for uncommon valor that never sleeps, for steady hands, sturdy legs, broad shoulders, and level heads, for stiff upper lips, for blood, sweat, and tears, for conquering our fears, and for unbending courage in the face of the unknown, we give thee praise.
O Father, we come to thee on this national day to join with heart and voice all the people of our blessed land to honor and thank thee. We ask you, Lord, as our forefathers did in times of strife, "to inspire our commanders both by land and sea, and all under them, with that wisdom and fortitude which may render them fit instruments, under the providence of Almighty God, to secure for these United States the greatest of all blessings: independence and peace."
For precious life itself in this great nation -- under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all -- we thank thee, O Father.
Amen.
Blog Talk Radio
Every Tuesday night at 9!
Tonight, I'll be joined by Michael "Slapstick" Sandoval, Randy "Night Twister" Ketner, and Ben "I'm here to educate you" DeGrow, as we bat around the week's news, and interview Michael Kerr, of Red County. It's not just Orange County any more!
What Was That About the Oil Industry
Governor Ritter and too many legislators have been counting on the oil and gas industry to protect us against a recession. Note that these are the same people who argue against shale oil on the basis of Black Sunday a few decades ago.
Here comes the bad news your mother warned you about:
Energy companies are slashing operating budgets as Colorado's once-booming oil and gas industry struggles with plummeting commodity prices, a tight credit market and an uncertain regulatory environment.
Hiring freezes have been implemented in an industry that just six months ago struggled to fill open positions. The effects of the cutbacks are trickling to other companies, such as law firms that provide service to oil and gas operators.
News flash: it ain't just the law firms. It's trucking companies, hotels, housing, construction, pipeline companies, metalworking, logging, and everything else upstream from the hole in the ground. It's not just severance taxes, guys.
They'll base the budget on a cyclical industry, but won't allow it to grow to take advantage of the upturns.
November 24, 2008
Colorado Cash Crunch
Or, the recession hits home.
PERA is finally coming to grips with the fact that it's made promises it can't keep, and it looking for ways to either promise less or require more. So far, nobody's talking about raising taxes or cutting services to meet these obligations. It's a remarkably mature attitude, and one wonders how much of it will survive first contact with actual numbers, and the governor's unionization of employees. Still, the fact that PERA isn't overtly asking for a bailout - yet - is a hopeful sign.
Maybe that's because nobody really believes the governor's budget numbers except the governor. He continues to provide us with non-sequiturs:
Ritter has told legislators that Colorado's economy should survive the downturn better than other states' because the flourishing alternative-energy and oil industries have led to more than two years of job growth - although that string ended in September, and the jobless rate increased to 5.7 percent in October, the highest level in more than four years.
I don't see anyone proposing a severance tax on wind.
More to the point, oil isn't exactly booming right now, and those expensive alternative energy jobs may or may not last with continued subsidies, which come from taxes. Which are kind of running low right now.
Sales tax revenues are expected to dip 3 percent this year from 2007 and corporate income-tax money is predicted to remain flat. But the office forecasts growth of 6.1 percent for sales taxes, 5.1 percent for individual income taxes and 3.9 percent for corporate income taxes next year.
Barring inflation, which will hit costs just as much as revenues, these numbers are wildly optimistic. There's no way the economy grows at these real rates in 2009. But, not to worry:
Even if energy money to the state declines, there won't be a big impact on the budget, according to members of the legislature's Joint Budget Committee. Severance tax revenues go to one-time expenses like park development and local projects. So if oil and gas payments drop, they won't take down standing areas of government, said Sen.-elect Al White, R-Hayden.
And, if revenue projections are way off, legislators say they can hold down spending to keep things in check. Bills featuring new programs that aren't self-sustaining will have a hard time getting out of committees, said House Majority Leader Paul Weissmann, D-Louisville.
Uh-huh. On one hand, the robust oil and new energy economy will save us. On the other hand, if they don't well, it won't really affect the general fund, anyway. But we were told during the campaign that the TABOR spending limits were, "insane." Yes, one candidate for HD-6 actually called them, "insane."
Watch out. These revenue numbers are really going to drive her nuts.
The Devil is in the Details
So you're comforted by Bill Richardson, Larry Summers, Hillary Clinton(!), and the rest of the Clinton Administration?
Just remember, it's the non-coms who are the backbone of any good military. Look at who's vetting the lower-tier officials, the ones who'll actually implement policy by making the rubber-meets-the-road decisions. The decisions that will fly below the radar, will require too much explanation for the MSM to bother with, and that cabinet-level heads would have to defend in a non-Obama administration.
- Cruz Reynoso, who was the first Latino to serve on the California Supreme Court. Not bad, except that he was also the first Latino to be recalled by their citizens of that state after practicing judicial nullification on their capital punishment laws
- Spencer Overton, who seems to have a problem - or perhaps no problem at all - with voter fraud.
- Pamela Gilbert, a Naderite, unsafe with any portfolio
- Bill Corr, who's basically responsible for my supervisor getting a ticket from the company security jv-cop in the parking lot the other day for smoking out on the sidewalk, something like 150 yards from the entrance. Seriousy.
- Xavier de Souza Briggs, who's a big fan of "housing mobility." Insert your own school-voucher-subprime-mortgage joke here.
But of course, read the whole thing.
Hat Tip: Instapundit
Countrywide's Senator Nowhere to Be Found
The Washington Post managed to write an entire article about Countrywide's regulators at the Office of Thrift Supervision without once mentioning the name of Sen. Christopher Dodd. The Connecticut senator claimed he received his sweetheart mortgage from Countrywide without his knowledge, under a plan specifically designed for policy-makers and VIPs.
The Post similarly seems shocked, shocked, to find that a regulatory agency became an advocate, rather than a regulator. We're still waiting for such shock to register concerning the FEC, the FCC, the NLRB, or indeed, the entire Department of Labor.
Moshav Motorola
Among the tactics used by the End the Israel crowd are economic and academic blackmail against companies that do business with the Jewish state. Two companies in particular were named, Caterpillar and Motorola. (I didn't get a chance to ask whether Caterpillar had earned a reprieve because one of its construction bulldozers was used in the Jerusalem terror attack a few months ago.)
Motorola, on the other hand, seems to have committed the sin of supplying the IDF with communications equipment. So when I went to go purchase my bluetooth earpiece and my cable modem yesterday, it was Motorola all the way.
The earpiece is a dream - I barely notice it's there, the sound is clear, and gosh darn, people can hear me. Not to mention that I look like that security guy from Empire Strikes Back, only with hair. I'll be checking the cable modem this evening when I get home.
In any event, Motorola costs a little more, but keep it in mind when you're buying electronics. And maybe send the company an email or a letter to let them know why.
November 21, 2008
Culture Clash
Politicians don't understand businessmen. And businessmen don't understand politicians. Each certainly fails to understand the game that the other is playing, and why they're playing it. It results in consistently unequal negotiations, where one side ends up getting scalped by the other.
Businessmen are in it to make money, but the entrepreneurs are also in it to build, to create, to do cool things. Politicians are in it to help people, but they're also in it to control, to exercise power, to dispense favors. For most of history, politicians had the upper hand, because wealth was tied up with the crown and with aristocracy, which was tied up with the government. Only in very rare instances - fleetinglly in industrializing England and France, and more durably in 19th and early 20th century America - was business able to run its own show.
It depends on whose turf they're playing on. Earlier this year, the academics and bureaucrats over at the Fed got snookered into heavily subsidizing JP Morgan's buyout of Bear Stearns. Morgan had to put up $1 billion, in return for which the Fed bought $26 billion or so of bad debt. The pressure was on, a deal had to be reached, we were told, and the government gave in.
Similarly here in Denver, aviation moguls have repeatedly played the Denver and Colorado governments over DIA. United Airlines got preferential treatment concerning gates, which prevented the expansion of Frontier and kept UA on life support, all the while shutting out new competition like Southwest and keeping fares high and choice low for Denver flyers. Later, Boeing led the governor and the mayor on a merry chase, playing them off against Chicago and Dallas for the right to host their new headquarters. And let's not even get started about Coors Field and Mile High II.
But it works the other way, too, and historically, it's been far more common. We got to build DIA, but the concession stands had minority and women set-asides. For some reason - can't for the life of me figure out how - Wilma Webb ended up with one of those set-asides.
And now, the Big 2.5 were on Capitol Hill rattling their tin cups, asking for our money to stay afloat. The price of this was to be a government oversight board of some kind. They they can't run a railroad, they seem to have problems running a bank, they sure as hell can't run a school system, they gave up trying to run the airlines, but they want an oversight board for auto manufacturers.
Then there are the health insurers who seem willing to sign the death warrant for their own industry:
Wall Street Journal: On Wednesday, the insurance industry's Washington trade group issued a statement saying it could accept new rules requiring companies to cover sick people, as well as healthy ones, as long as all Americans were required to have insurance, with subsidies for those who need them. The declaration by America's Health Insurance Plans is a switch from the industry's long-time opposition to rules that bar the common practice of weeding out customers who are likely to rack up too many bills.
...
National Review: Still, [Daschle] is unlikely to abandon the contention that decisions regarding what should or should not be available as a universal benefit to all Americans should be decided by an independent body of experts and wise men, not the marketplace or the political process. A powerful, unaccountable über-regulator of health care would be exactly what proponents of market-based health care dread.
Having demonized insurers for making money on their product, the government would simply rig the rules so that its "non-profit" share of the health insurance market steadily grew.
There's a chilling line from Atlas Shrugged, where the increasingly meddlesome bureaucrats tell the Midshipmen of Industry, "You wouldn't want us to tell you how to run your businesses now, would you?"
Indeed.
Progressively more intrusive. Progressively more expensive. Progressively more restrictive.
The Oldest Hatred, The Newest Slander
You'd think that after, oh, 3300 years, there wouldn't be much new for the anti-Semites to say.
You'd be wrong.
The meme started by History's Greatest Monster, that Ariel Sharon is Jan Smuts with a kipah, has gotten new traction from a group called, "End the Occupation." You might remember. It was in all the papers. Which is why pretty much everyone Jewish who had even looked at the Carter Center from the parking lot walked out of the place in early 2007.(It's a measure of how poorly the Republicans did in 2006 that even Carter couldn't get them re-elected.)
So now, along comes Diana Buttu, and her presentation, taking the ball and running with it. Bringing her Separate Is Not Equal Travelling Road Show and Snake Oil Pharmacy to Boulder on Monday, she showed how effective an unopposed and disingenuous attorney can be when presenting her case.
If repetition is the soul of propaganda, then her main themes were:
1) The Ideology of Superiority
2) There are no "Israeli Arabs," only "Palestinian Citizens of Israel"
3) We are all "privileged."
These are powerful ideas taken together. She refers repeatedly to, "theological underpinnings" of, "apartheid," which can only mean the concept of chosenness. I have been told, but cannot confirm, that she has made that connection explicitly in previous Tour Stops.
She repeated the phrase, "ideology of superiority" at least 11 times. By repeating that theme over and over, it not only demonizes Israel and Israelis, it also deligitimizes anything that Jews might do to defend themselves.
Her reference to "Palestinian Citizens of Israel" makes it easy to identify where she thinks their loyalty ought to lie. Can you say, "Fifth Column?" I knew you could. Never mind that every time rumors surface about turning over eastern Jerusalem start circulating, Jerusalemite Arabs vote with their resident applications concerning which government they prefer. Again, it's intended to deligitimize Israel's control over the Galil and other Arab-majority areas.
As for 3), "privileges" are a left-wing buzz-word of the first order. Just remember that you can be "privileges" and not even know it. And privileges, unlike rights, can and need to be revoked.
The Q&A was more distinguished for the questions Ms, Buttu didn't answer than for those she did. Among those:
- What solutions do you propose?
- Do you support a 1-state or a 2-state solution?
- What can Israel do to defend itself? (The good reverend, accompanying Ms. Buttu as her warm-up act, implied that surrender would be a good start.)
- What about the Egyptian and Jordanian occupations of Palestine-outside-the-Green-Line?
These, of course, are the tough questions, the ones that might prove embarassing to one of her many constituencies.
Interestingly, among those most-targeted constituencies would be American blacks, those for whom a comparison to apartheid might resonate. All of three showed up.
I'm working on uploading the video of her presentation. It's truly chilling, but forewarned is forearmed.
UPDATE: I'm reminded that Bridget Johnson over at the RMN was there was well.
November 19, 2008
Opening Night
Last night saw the debut of the RMA's Blog Talk Radio show. Michael "Best Destiny" Alcorn, Randy "Night Twister" Ketner, and I had a great time introducing ourselves, the show, and interviewing Seeme Hasan of Muslims for America. Even if we didn't agree with everything she had to say - in particular as regards CAIR - we think it was a valuable interview.
We had 46 live listeners, and as of right now, we've had 69 listeners to the archive, either streaming or download. Not bad for opening night.
Remember, Tuesday nights at 9:00!
Those Darned Websites
Well, if I'm going to hit the House Republicans for not maintaining their website, I want to give them credit when they do. But remember, it takes at least two data points to make a trend.
(The Dems announced their own committee assignments, and District 6 will be represented on State, Veterans, & Military, and on Judiciary.)
Let's also note the contrast between the Senate Republicans and the Senate Democrats.
Royalty, Indeed
Royalty and aristocracy were expert and exercising arbitrary power, disconnected from any sort of economic or social reality. The whole argument over shale oil exploration out west smacks of this. But while the Bush Administration has bolloxed its handling of the problem, the Colorado Democrats' response is just plain irresponsible.
One of the main obstructions to shale oil development was the lack of a regulatory regime, and a major part of that regime was the royalty rate that companies would have to pay for their leases. The Administration has proposed a rate that starts at 5% and climbs to 12.5%.
Now, the Democrats are half-right when they say:
"A rate of 12 percent might be too high, but it also may end up being too low," [director of Colorado's Department of Natural Resources Harris] Sherman said.
"Setting a royalty rate without knowing the cost of production makes no sense."
The half- part is that it's not the cost of production at issue, but the profit margin.
But then, how can Salazar know that, "it [is] a 'pittance' that would short Colorado by billions of dollars?"
[Sen.] Salazar's brother, Democratic Rep. John Salazar, was also critical, saying water, energy and the impact of shale development on Colorado towns remain unresolved.
Harris Sherman, director of the Colorado Department of Natural Resources, said it was "irresponsible" to move ahead before officials have a better idea of which technologies will work and what the likely impact will be on towns, air, water and land.
No kidding. Because Sen. Salazar and Governor Ritter have done everything in their power to prevent even experimental exploration and production on the land here.
Their complaining about putting the cart before the horse would be funny if they weren't trying to force you back into using them.
In the meantime, the Post not only ignores that irony, but also lets their complaints about water usage go unchallenged. We currently let about 1 million acre-feet of water leave the state, or about 22% of our supply in a normal year. And Colorado's oil shale actually traps considerable amounts of water that could be captured during the oil recovery process. Ignoring these facts reinforces the image of western Colorado as a bone-dry wasteland, except for peach orchards.
November 18, 2008
Aspen's "New" Ideas
Aspen's a charming little town, now starting to overflow its banks and pour down the Roaring Fork Valley towards Glenwood Springs. I like to get up there about once a year for a Shabbat, if I can. The town's wealthy. Really, really wealthy. Like Prince Bandar wealthy. But there are still some affordable hotels in town, for around $100 a night, even during The Season.
One of these is Aspen Meadows Resort, home of the Aspen Institute, where the self-congratulatory intelligentsia gather from time to time to congratulate themselves on, well, being intelligent, I suppose. (It's also the home of much bad architecture and pseudo-public art, which will be the subject of merciless mocking mirth over on the main site sometime soon.)
The library - in the reception building actually named for Prince Bandar - for some reason contains no books by Ibn Warraq or Bernard Lewis. It's not as though there's no room for the reality-based community there at all. Advise and Consent and Fail-Safe are there, so I suppose hard-edged realism has a place, and that place is in 50-year-old novels.
Mostly, we get the world as It should be, and could be, if everyone were as intelligent as us. Er, we. So there's Capitalism, Communism, and Coexistence. Two copies in fact, just in case the whole coexistence part turns out to be harder than you thought. There's Perestroika, from the same region of the camp, and Wesley Clark's Winning Modern Wars, from a general determined to lose them. I guess it's a matter of defining your terms. (Prince Bandar seems ok with that.)
Since dissent is patriotic, P.J. O'Rourke does get an entry - Give War a Chance, but only because it's next to the shockingly prescient End of Iraq.
And there's Plan B 2.0, by Lester Brown. Which I guess it what you need if you've been wrong often enough.
Maybe that's supposed to be the library's real inspiration.
November 17, 2008
Progress, Now...Not so Much
About a week ago, I blogged about the improvement that the state Republicans had shown in the state House of Representatives races. That's the good news.
The bad news is in the state Senate. Aside from the probable loss of Lori Clapp's seat, the aggregate vote also took a turn for the worse, and for many of the same reasons the Republicans did better in the House.
In 2004, the Republicans lost 51% - 47.3%, and by an aggregate vote of 35,000 votes. This time, in the same set of seats (ignoring the special race in District 16), we lost 56-44, and by about 129,000 votes. Of that improvement, about 48,000 came from Democrats competing in seats that were uncontested in 2004. And remember, 2004 was the year the Dems took over the legislature as a whole.
District 8 showed improvement, but was a hold, and District 19 showed significant improvement, but we still failed to wrest it away.
Combining this with the data from the House races, it's a fair bet that the results taken together are a result of more tactical spending on the part of CoDA and the Four Horsemen. Realizing that the House didn't show much chance or need for gains, whereas the Senate could be put out of reach for the vital redistricting year of 2010, that's where the "progressives" put their money.
I haven't looked ahead to the 2010 calendar, but I'm guessing that barring a major change in the landscape, the Senate now probably is out of reach, and redistricting will probably focus on that body more than any other.
BTR Guests
The RMA is pleased to announced that we've confirmed that Seeme Hasan will join us for our first show, this Tuesday at 9:00 PM. Mrs. Hasan is the recipient of the Independence Institute's D'Evylyn Award, and the founder of Muslims for America.
Newspapers - The Financial Crisis - I
A lot of pixels have been spilt over the financial crisis that newspapers are now facing. Some of it has been triumphalist, some of it more in sadness than in anger (or joy).
Now, as Ecclesiastes says, there's, "a time to destroy, a time to gloat." OK, I made that part up. But the fact is that while new media may create the buzz, most issues are still ultimately validated by appearing in the MSM. Their brand-name appeal still carries a lot of weight, as demonstrated by their post-2004 counterattack against blogs. And the fact that their corrections sections pages compete only with their apologists ombudsmen in after-the-fact self-justification hasn't yet succeeded in destroying that brand-name.
So the financial condition of newspapers should still be of interest to us all. (They are, it would seem, at least of passing interest to their publishers. Although not of enough interest for the publishers to pay for the conference themselves. "The summit conference was enabled by a generous grant from the McCormick Foundation and funded by API's J. Montgomery Curtis Memorial Seminar Fund.")
Some of the gloating has come from talk radio and the right, on the assumption that the MSM's credibility gap is causing its financial difficulties. Maybe. But as one of the participants put it, "'We don't have a crisis of audience. We have a crisis of revenue' in monetizing that traffic."
Over the course of a series of articles, I'm going to look at the industry's financials, learning and revising as I go, trying to understand and explain what's happening to the newspaper industry, and why it's producing stock charts that look like the pre-Fed Bear Stearns:
Worst Bailout Excuse Yet
On Friday, driving to Aspen for the weekend, I happened to hear Lou from Littleton (a host, not a caller, on KOA, who's actually from Detroit), argue for the automakers' bailout. His case? That attendance at the Lions games was so bad that the NFL was considering lifting its blackout policy there.
So instead of spending $25 billion to keep the UAW afloat for a few more years, how about the Lions just lower the ticket prices? Oh, right. Probably because then they wouldn't be able to put that quality product on the field that the people of Detroit have come to expect over the last 50 years.
November 16, 2008
Now They Tell Us
The Denver Post comes out against card check this morning:
If Obama or congressional Democrats now put a card-check bill high on their agenda, they will risk a "Ritter moment" that would damage their relations with moderates and the business community. That's what happened to Gov. Bill Ritter in 2007 when a bill gutting long-standing rules limiting "union shops" in the Colorado Peace Act hurtled through the legislature with little public input.
Ritter rightly vetoed that bill, but the move angered his labor supporters. Later that year, the governor tried to make amends by granting limited collective-bargaining rights to state employees. That move, in turn, alienated much of the business community. This year's wholly avoidable fights over a right-to- work initiative and four anti-business initiatives that labor later withdrew all followed.
The Colorado squabbles weren't worth it. Whatever benefits labor might have gained by disrupting a decades-long accord with business were far outweighed by the disruption these duels caused.
This, coming from a paper whose editorial page never mentioned card check as an issue, and whose campaign coverage rarely mentioned it at all. From an editorial page that repeatedly blamed business for instigating this year's ballot initiatives fight,
Now that Right to Work is safely dead and buried, and now that their candidate - candidates, if one includes Mark Udall - are safely elected, they tell us that it would be in the Democrats' best interests not to reward their largest, most organized constituency.
Forgive me for doubting their sincerity.
November 15, 2008
So, What Did Johnson Do?
Well, in the course of creating the Great Society, that's never so great it can't be made greater by a little more of your money, here's the list of legislation (be afraid; be very afraid):
| 1963 | | College Facilities | Clean Air | | | Vocational Education | Indian Vocational Training | Manpower Training | | 1964 | | Inter-American Development Bank | Kennedy Cultural Center | Tax Reduction | | Presidential Transition | Federal Airport Aid | Farm Program | | Chamizal Convention | Pesticide Controls | International Development Association | | Civil Rights Act of 1964 | Compobello International Park | Urban Mass Transit | | Water Resources Research | Federal Highway | Civil Service Pay Raise | | War on Poverty | Criminal Justice | Truth in Securities | | Medicine Bow National Forest | Ozark Scenic Riverway | Administrative Conference | | Fort Bowie Historic Site | Food Stamp | Housing Act | | Interest Equalization | Wilderness Areas | Nurse Training | | Revenues for Recreation | Fire Island National Seashore | Library Services | | Federal Employee Health Benefits | | | | 1965 | | Medicare | Aid to Education | Higher Education | | Four Year Farm Program | Department of HUD | Housing Act | | Social Security Increase | Voting Rights | Fair Immigration Law | | Older Americans | Heart, Cancer, Stroke | Law Enforcement Assistance | | National Crime Commission | Drug Controls | Mental Health Facilities | | Health Professions | Medical Libraries | Vocational Rehabilitation | | Anti-Poverty Program | Arts & Humanities | Aid to Appalachia | | Highway Beauty | Clean Air | Water Pollution Control | | High Speed Transit | Manpower Training | Presidential Diability | | Child Health | Regional Development | Aid to Small Business | | Weather Predicting | Militaty Pay Increase | GI Health Insurance | | Community Health Services | Water Resources Council | Water Desalting | | Assateague Nat'l Seashore | Whiskeytown Nat'l Rec. Area | Delaware Water Gap Rec. Area | | Juvenile Delinquency Control | Arms Control | Strengthening UN Charter | | Int'l Coffee Agreement | Retirement for Public Servants | | | 1966 | | Food for India | Child Nutrition | Dept. of Transportation | | Truth in Packaging | Model Cities | Rent Supplements | | Teachers Corps | Asian Development Bank | Clean Rivers | | Food for Freedom | Child Safety | Narcotics Rehab | | Traffic Safety | Highway Safety | Mine Safety | | Int'l Education | Bail Reform | Tire Safety | | New GI Bill | Minimum Wage Increase | Urban Mass Transit | | Civil Procedure Reform | Federal Highway Aid | Military Medicare | | Public Health Reorg. | Cape Lookout | Water Research | | Guadalupe Nat'l Park | Bicentennial | Fish-Wildlife Preservation | | Water for Peace | Anti-Inflation Program | Scientific Knowledge Exchg. | | Cultural Materials Exchg. | Foreign Investors Tax | Parcel Post Reform | | Civil Service Pay Raise | Stockpile Sales | Participation Cert. | | Protection for Savings | Flexible Interest Rates | Freedom of Information | | 1967 | | Education Professions | Education Act | Air Pollution Control | | Partnership for Health | Social Security Increases | Age Discrimination | | Wholesome Meat | Flammable Fabrics | Urban Research | | Public Broadcasting | Outer Space Treaty | Modern DC Gov't | | Vietnam Vets Benefits | Federal Judicial Center | Civilian Postal Pay | | Deaf-Blind Center | College Work Study | Summer Youth Programs | | Food Stamps | Rail Strike Settlement | Selective Service | | Urban Fellowships | Consular Treaty | Safety at Sea Treaty | | Narcotics Treaty | Anti-Racketeering | Product Safety | | Small Business Aid | Inter-American Bank | | | 1968 | | Fair Housing | Indian Bill of Rights | Safe Streets | | Wholesome Poultry | Food for Peace | Commodity Exchange Rules | | Grain Standards | School Breakfasts | Bank Protection | | Defense Production | Corporate Takeovers | Export Program | | Gold Cover Removal | Truth in Lending | Aircraft Noise Abatement | | Auto Insurance Study | New Narcotics Bureau | Gas Pipeline Safety | | Fire Safety | Sea Grant Colleges | DC School Board | | Tax Surcharge | Better Housing | Int'l Monetary Reform | | Int'l Grains Treaty | Oil Revenues for Recreation | Virgin Islands Election | | San Rafael Wilderness | San Gabriel Wilderness | Fair Federal Juries | | Candidate Protection | Juvenile Deliquency Protection | Guaranteed Student Loans | | DC Visitors Center | FHA-VA Interest Rate | Health Manpower | | Eisenhower College | Gun Controls | Aid to Handicapped Children | | Redwoods Park | Flaming Gorge Rec. Area | Biscayne Park | | Heart, Cancer, & Stroke | Hazardous Radiation Protect'n | Col. River Reclamation | | Scenic Rivers | Scenic Trails | Nat'l Water Comm. | | Federal Magistrates | Vocational Education | Veterans Pension Increase | | North Cascades Park | Int'l Coffee Agreement | Intergovernmental Manpower | | Dangerous Drugs Control | Military Justice Code | |
Look at this list. A couple of things like the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act are positive goods. Some are tolerable, like Clean Air and clothes that won't turn into a funeral pyre make some sense, but why isn't the latter just part of consumer product safety? People want to point to FDR as walking all over the Constitution, and they've got a point, but it's LBJ who really took the ball and ran with it.
(The "anti-inflation" program is particularly touching.) Look at how the real monsters - Medicare, Medicaid (which isn't listed, and is probably under one of those Social Security expansions) are hidden in there. Look at how careful Johnson was to take care of the bureaucrats, increasing their pay, their benefits, and their pensions. Look at how much of a failure just about everything on the list has been. The multiple health initiatives haven't solved anything, but we'll be asked to pony up for more of the same. The education initiatives were passed - and continue to spend money - because of the same arguments we're hearing now. (Listing the DC School Board as an achievement must be some kind of a cruel joke. The one about Modern DC government is actually pretty funny.) There are four or five vocational education programs, but we're now calling for more. Look at how much is repetitive, and how much was done without waiting to see the results of prior experiments.
I doubt there's a single line-item here that's been repealed, but they're bankrupting the country 40 years later. They haven't solved a single problem, but the answer, naturally, is more of the same.
We've Been Here Before...and After
Republicans seem to be consoling themselves that Barack Obama may be Jimmy Carter II. Given the control that the Dems are likely to have steal these next two years, and given the ambitious nature of both the Congressional Democrats and President-Elect Obama's desire to, in his words, "fundamentally change America," I think he's much more likely to turn into Lyndon Johnson II.
Ronald Reagan's iconic speech, "A Time for Choosing," delivered on October 27, 1964, touched on themes just as relevant 44 years later:
Not too long ago, two friends of mine were talking to a Cuban refugee, a businessman who had escaped from Castro, and in the midst of his story one of my friends turned to the other and said, "We don't know how lucky we are." And the Cuban stopped and said, "How lucky you are? I had someplace to escape to." And in that sentence he told us the entire story. If we lose freedom here, there's no place to escape to. This is the last stand on earth.
And this idea that government is beholden to the people, that it has no other source of power except the sovereign people, is still the newest and the most unique idea in all the long history of man's relation to man.
This is the issue of this election: whether we believe in our capacity for self-government or whether we abandon the American revolution and confess that a little intellectual elite in a far-distant capitol can plan our lives for us better than we can plan them ourselves.
You and I are told increasingly we have to choose between a left or right. Well I'd like to suggest there is no such thing as a left or right. There's only an up or down: [up] man's old -- old-aged dream, the ultimate in individual freedom consistent with law and order, or down to the ant heap of totalitarianism. And regardless of their sincerity, their humanitarian motives, those who would trade our freedom for security have embarked on this downward course.
In this vote-harvesting time, they use terms like the "Great Society," or as we were told a few days ago by the President, we must accept a greater government activity in the affairs of the people. But they've been a little more explicit in the past and among themselves; and all of the things I now will quote have appeared in print. These are not Republican accusations. For example, they have voices that say, "The cold war will end through our acceptance of a not undemocratic socialism." Another voice says, "The profit motive has become outmoded. It must be replaced by the incentives of the welfare state." Or, "Our traditional system of individual freedom is incapable of solving the complex problems of the 20th century." Senator Fulbright has said at Stanford University that the Constitution is outmoded. He referred to the President as "our moral teacher and our leader," and he says he is "hobbled in his task by the restrictions of power imposed on him by this antiquated document." He must "be freed," so that he "can do for us" what he knows "is best." And Senator Clark of Pennsylvania, another articulate spokesman, defines liberalism as "meeting the material needs of the masses through the full power of centralized government."
Well, I, for one, resent it when a representative of the people refers to you and me, the free men and women of this country, as "the masses." This is a term we haven't applied to ourselves in America. But beyond that, "the full power of centralized government" -- this was the very thing the Founding Fathers sought to minimize. They knew that governments don't control things. A government can't control the economy without controlling people. And they know when a government sets out to do that, it must use force and coercion to achieve its purpose. They also knew, those Founding Fathers, that outside of its legitimate functions, government does nothing as well or as economically as the private sector of the economy.
Making us just like every other centrally-guided economy on the face of the earth, centralizing our personal liberty away to a central government who'll decide how much of it we'll be trusted with, isn't "progressive" at all.
So what did Johnson do? Well, see the next post.
November 14, 2008
Can It Be As Painless As This?
I'm sure there are a lot more features I'm not using, not using properly, or actively misusing. In other words (Bill Safire's, actually), I'm almost certainly committing blog nonfeasance, malfeasance, and misfeasance.
Still, can it actually be this easy to upgrade from one version of MT to the next?
|
