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« Confession for Financial Regulators & Bankers | Main | Special BTR Today »

Uncertainty

One of the villains of Amity Shlaes's The Forgotten Man is uncertainty. Markets hate nothing more than uncertainty, which paralyzes decision-making and freezes capital. Typically, market uncertainty is nasty, brutish, and short. Typically, government uncertainly is agonizing and long.

At the end Roberts's and Kling's podcast, Kling points out that there are vulture funds waiting to buy distrssed securities and properties in order to re-sell them at a profit, but that the holders are waiting for a better deal on a bailout. (Something like this may have happened with Citigroup and Wells Fargo fighting over Wachovia.)

This is bad for about 100 different reasons, but I'll pick 5 ways this royally screws up market operations:

1) It prevents mark-to-market rules from working, hiding losses when there effectively is no market
2) It keeps distressed securities off the market, keeping markets illiquid
3) The lack of a market in certain securities makes it impossible to issue new securities of that type
4) It keeps the market from finding its level; something priced at 80 might sell for 50 after being dumped at 30; you'll never know the true value
5) It keeps the vultures from earning money while not capitalizing the guys holding onto the assets

I could go on, but you get the idea. It all adds up to nobody knowing what anything's worth, and nobody being willing to take risks because they can't price that risk adequately. As a result it freezes capital and damages the real economy.

FDR didn't help this problem, he made it worse. He got the politics of it - he didn't need to suggest a solution to get elected, and he steadfastly refused to work with Hoover after he was elected. I don't see anything from the forthcoming Obama administration to suggest anything different.

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  booklist

Power, Faith, and Fantasy


Six Days of War


An Army of Davids


Learning to Read Midrash


Size Matters


Deals From Hell


A War Like No Other


Winning


A Civil War


Supreme Command


The (Mis)Behavior of Markets


The Wisdom of Crowds


Inventing Money


When Genius Failed


Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking


Back in Action : An American Soldier's Story of Courage, Faith and Fortitude


How Would You Move Mt. Fuji?


Good to Great


Built to Last


Financial Fine Print


The Day the Universe Changed


Blog


The Multiple Identities of the Middle-East


The Case for Democracy


A Better War: The Unexamined Victories and Final Tragedy of America's Last Years in Vietnam


The Italians


Zakhor: Jewish History and Jewish Memory


Beyond the Verse: Talmudic Readings and Lectures


Reading Levinas/Reading Talmud