I gave up blogging about the political markets a little while back, not so much because of the bad news, but because I didn't need to be a ticker tape. Since good news is more fun to report than bad news, I also didn't want to risk being one of those wartime news services that report only victories, but victories ever further away from the enemy capital.
But there's been a bounce in the President job approval rating. Naturally, the same MSM which trumpeted collapsing and plumetting ratings as they fell from 47% to 37%, now considers the reverse movement to be "slight." It may still prove to be transient, but the distance is the same in either direction.
In any event, it looked like time to see if this was translating into support in the markets, and it seems to be. The betting parlors are pushing the Republicans back up over the 50% to hold the House. Both Tradesports and the Iowa Electronic markets have done so. Arguably, the IEM has better-informed investors, but Tradesports has a broader base.
Since the idea behind the "Wisdom of Crowds" is that more is better, and that the crowd doesn't have to be particularly well-educated in the speciality, take that for what it's worth. Right now, it's worth about 3 cents on the dollar difference between the two markets, which I suppose constitutes an arbitrage opportunity.